AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Escalation Disrupts Region: Airlines are extending Middle East flight suspensions as strikes and drone attacks intensify, with Air France, KLM and others adjusting schedules and avoiding Iran, Iraq and Israel airspace. Egypt Damietta Port Hit: Egypt’s cabinet says a drone attack caused a fire at Damietta port, damaging LNG-linked vessels; operations continue while investigations assess security and national interests. Israel Defense Push: A senior Israeli official says the country aims to cut reliance on US aid by developing stealth fighter jets and unmanned combat aircraft within 10 years. Iraq Security Crackdown: Iraq detained groups accused of attacks on state facilities, with officials alleging links to Ukraine; Ukraine denies the claims. Markets Watch Inflation: The US economy grew 1.5% in Q2, below expectations, while the Bank of England held rates at 3.75% amid renewed Middle East inflation risks. Business & Culture: Brookfield launched Lumara to speed India renewables (solar, wind, BESS), while a feature highlights Hebrew-speaking Catholics in Jerusalem and their small community’s daily life.

US-Iran Escalation: Iran fired missiles at US forces as the US and Saudi Arabia struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters and six Iranian advisers; the flare-up after brief calm raises fears of wider war. Egypt Port Incident: A drone hit a US-owned floating storage tanker at Damietta, sparking fires on vessels, as the conflict spreads beyond the Gulf. New US Strikes: Washington launched “powerful” retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets after intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at US forces; Trump vowed to hit Iran “very hard.” Oil Shock: Airstrike resumption pushed Brent up about 7% to around $90 and revived supply fears, with knock-on effects for fuel prices and inflation. Markets & Policy: The Fed held rates steady amid inflation worries, while Japan’s price expert warned the Middle East-driven inflation wave could push the BOJ toward faster hikes. Qatar Spotlight: Qatar ranked No. 2 globally in a labour market index, citing labour reforms and digital government. Local Life: Qatar National Library runs entrepreneurship and community programmes, while Iraq’s factions face a looming September weapons deadline.

Fuel Prices & Inflation Pressure: Malaysia’s finance ministry raised RON97, unsubsidised RON95 and unsubsidised diesel by 20 sen per litre for July 30–Aug 5, citing Middle East-driven Brent volatility and risks to Hormuz and the Red Sea. Regional Security Escalation: Iran launched more than 600 missile/drone attacks on US forces in Iraq, while US and Saudi precision strikes hit Iran-aligned targets in eastern Iraq after over 30 drone attacks; Jordan also intercepted five Iranian missiles aimed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. Oil Markets: The renewed fighting pushed oil higher and kept global markets jittery as the dollar firmed ahead of the Fed. Lebanon Plan Under Strain: Lebanon’s “pilot zone” plan faces setbacks as Israel’s actions and continued demolitions raise fears the redeployment deal won’t hold. Business & Logistics Hit: Smurfit Westrock cut its profit outlook, blaming elevated freight costs tied to Middle East disruption; telecom and transport firms also highlight demand for smarter systems amid instability. Qatar Economy: Qatar ranked 2nd globally in the labour market index, pointing to labour reforms and digital government gains. Sports Calendar: F1 chief Domenicali said the 2026 season could end in Europe if Qatar and Abu Dhabi can’t host finals due to the Iran war.

Middle East Security: Iran launched ballistic missiles at US forces in the region; CENTCOM said all were intercepted, while US and Saudi aircraft hit “Iran-aligned” targets in eastern Iraq after more than 30 drone attacks. Strait of Hormuz: Iran rejected Oman’s proposal for joint governance of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping pressure on shipping and energy chokepoints. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan backed Jordan’s call to convene Arab and Islamic states over worsening conditions in Gaza and the West Bank, including renewed concern over Al-Aqsa incursions. Markets & Costs: South Korea is weighing possible military support for freedom of navigation through Hormuz, as governments and businesses brace for renewed disruption and higher fuel and shipping costs. Local Economy (Philippines): Marcos’ SONA promised oil price rollbacks, but pump prices rose again for the sixth straight week; the Senate also moved to raise the income tax exemption ceiling to P350,000 from 2027. Business & Tourism (UAE/Qatar): Dubai Sports Council launched the Kabayan Basketball League, while Hilton Doha The Pearl named new leadership and a Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar study mapped gaps in falls research across MENA.

Middle East Diplomacy: Mediators say progress is being made to restart US-Iran talks, but scattered attacks across the region show tensions are far from over. Regional Security: Iran-backed militias are again using Iraq as a launchpad, targeting Saudi Arabia and Iraq’s Kurdistan region and raising threats toward Jordan, Israel and Syria. Energy & Markets: Oil stays under pressure after a pause in fighting, but the wider Middle East conflict continues to rattle supply routes and keep fuel costs elevated. Aviation Costs: The Philippines’ Civil Aeronautics Board raised fuel surcharges for flights booked in early August, citing higher jet fuel prices linked to Middle East disruptions. Public Finance & Utilities: A coalition in the Philippines says electricity bills remain dominated by generation charges, even as system loss charges are set to be reduced. Healthcare in Qatar: Sidra Medicine administered Qatar’s first Itvisma gene therapy patient for spinal muscular atrophy, marking a major precision-medicine milestone. Humanitarian Development: The Human Development Fund opened a regional office in Jordan to expand social protection and shift aid toward long-term empowerment. Culture: Guggenheim Abu Dhabi is set to officially open on December 11, 2026, adding a major new cultural anchor to Saadiyat Island.

US-Iran War Update: The Pentagon says 624 US troops have been wounded since strikes against Iran began, with revised fatality figures shifting deaths into a new “Overseas Operations” category, as a fragile pause continues amid mutual accusations. Energy & Markets: Oil prices slid about 1% as investors weighed a pause in US strikes and hopes for diplomacy, easing pressure on inflation fears; regional shipping and Red Sea risks still hang over crude and transport costs. Regional Diplomacy: Oman launched fresh calls to de-escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, seeking a political mechanism to guarantee navigation and keep supply chains moving. Middle East Spillover on Economies: Philippines President Marcos pushed tax relief in his SONA to cushion the Middle East-driven cost shock, while Asean+3 AMRO warned growth may stay weak and inflation risks remain above target. Business & Investment: Brookfield raised about $2bn for a Middle East private equity fund anchored by Saudi PIF, betting on long-term deal flow despite the Iran war backdrop. Local Impacts: Italy extended a temporary diesel tax cut to blunt fuel-price pressure tied to Middle East tensions.

Middle East Crisis & Energy: Oil prices and markets stayed jumpy as the US and Iran paused strikes, easing some pressure while Red Sea risks and Hormuz-linked supply fears still loom. Philippines Economic Shielding: In Marcos Jr.’s SONA, the government promised tax relief (including raising income tax exemptions to ₱350,000), bigger social safety nets, and steps to blunt Middle East-driven fuel shocks—citing oil purchases from multiple countries and fuel price rollbacks. Local Aid & Jobs: Marcos highlighted funds sent to local governments after the Middle East escalation and pointed to job fairs that hired tens of thousands in early 2026. Gulf Shipping & Insurance: Reports say major insurers are tightening war-risk coverage for Saudi-linked vessels, raising costs and uncertainty for Red Sea trade. UAE Business & Tech: Electromech Infraprojects inked an MoU with Abu Dhabi’s Nova Capital to pursue hyperscale data centres across the UAE and GCC. Aviation & Travel: flydubai resumes Dubai–Budapest flights, while F1 moved the Bahrain GP to Malaysia amid regional instability. Culture & Heritage: UNESCO added six new Middle East/North Africa sites, including UAE’s Wadi Wurayah and Lebanon’s Mount Amel Castles.

US-Iran Pause: The US halted strikes for a second day while Iran said it will stop attacks if Washington does, as diplomacy gets “some space” and Gulf shipping stays tense. Red Sea Disruption: Houthi attacks on Saudi oil sites have cut traffic through Bab el-Mandeb to the lowest in months, while Strait of Hormuz transit remains severely restricted. West Bank Violence: Israeli settlers set fire to two mosques in the occupied West Bank after a deadly Tal clash, as Netanyahu orders a major security operation and far-right calls for annexation grow. Gaza Leadership: Hamas has named longtime negotiator Khalil al-Hayya to lead its political bureau, signaling continued engagement at talks without moderation. UNESCO Under Threat: Six heritage sites were added to UNESCO’s “Danger” list, including Palestine’s Sebastia and emergency listings in South Sudan and Lebanon. Energy Pressure: Oil volatility is driving fresh fuel and policy moves across the region, with markets watching for renewed escalation. Qatar Finance: QNB opened a new QNB First premium branch in Msheireb Downtown Doha, expanding its luxury banking footprint.

F1 & Gulf Rescheduling: Formula 1 has confirmed the Bahrain Grand Prix will return to the calendar but be held at Malaysia’s Sepang International Circuit on Oct. 2-4, with Bahrain funding the move after the Iran-war fallout forced the April Bahrain and Saudi races off the schedule. US-Iran Red Sea Tensions: The US paused airstrikes against Iran for a second consecutive night, while Houthis struck Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea, and Iran accused Ukraine of hitting an Iranian-linked vessel in the Caspian Sea—raising fresh worries for shipping and energy. Lebanon’s Hezbollah Dilemma: Analysts warn Lebanon’s fragile ceasefire won’t hold unless the state can constrain Hezbollah without triggering a wider civil conflict, as Israel weighs buffer-zone plans and Iran keeps backing the group. Markets & Cost Pressure: Philippine stocks stayed under pressure as Brent pushed back above $100 and the peso weakened, with investors watching Strait of Hormuz-to-Red Sea choke points. Local Food Security: Cebu and Bohol approved a joint technical working group to tackle food inflation by improving fish and farm supply coordination, logistics, and direct sourcing. Pope Calls for De-escalation: Pope Leo XIV urged Middle East parties to suspend attacks and restart diplomacy, warning civilians face worsening shortages of water and electricity.

Red Sea Escalation: Houthis fired missiles and drones at Saudi oil installations in Yanbu and Jizan, as the US kept a naval blockade on Iran and redirected/disabled non-compliant vessels, widening fears for key shipping lanes. US-Iran Standoff: After 13 nights of strikes, Iran reported a rare “peaceful night,” while Washington weighed further escalation amid concerns over interceptor shortages and depleted air-defense stocks. Regional Diplomacy: Netanyahu is set to visit Washington next week as leaders coordinate on Iran strategy, while UNESCO added a West Bank archaeological site and Lebanese castles to the World Heritage List despite Israeli objections. Security & Alliances: Belgium arrested a Canadian intern on suspicion of spying at NATO’s SHAPE headquarters, and Turkey still has not met US conditions for F-35s after S-400 fallout. Energy & Prices: Oil pushed toward $100 again, lifting fuel costs and stoking inflation worries across markets, from the US to the Gulf and beyond. Local Economy: Kuwait’s Soof Wool Mill won a 2026 MENA energy award for turning local wool into a sustainable factory.

Yemen–Saudi Escalation: The Houthis claimed responsibility for missile attacks on southern Saudi Arabia after a bombing in Hodeida, warning of further retaliation. US–Iran War Moves: The US expanded strikes deeper into Iran, hitting bridges and infrastructure, while Iran reported a “peaceful night” after 13 nights of bombardment; meanwhile, US forces fired on a vessel trying to breach a blockade of Iranian ports. Red Sea Shipping Shock: Markets watched whether attacks would tighten chokepoints; oil jumped above $100 on Middle East fears before retreating as some ships still passed. Energy & Prices: Local fuel pricing pressures are building across the region, with diesel and gasoline expected to rise again next week amid Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb disruption risks. Kuwait Investment Push: Kuwait agreed a $16B pipeline infrastructure deal with Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR, even as it faces frequent attacks tied to Iran tensions. Diplomacy: China hosted renewed momentum for US-Iran talks via Pakistan, while SCO foreign ministers stressed regional security and multilateral cooperation. Culture & Heritage: UNESCO added Sebastia in the occupied West Bank and historic medinas in Lebanon and the Comoros to its World Heritage lists, despite political objections.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded more strikes for a 13th straight night, while Saudi-led forces hit Yemen’s Hodeidah after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, deepening fears of wider regional war. Shipping & Energy Shock: With the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea routes under pressure, insurers and freight costs are rising and oil prices pushed above $100, threatening fresh fuel-price spikes across the region. US-Saudi Nuclear Deal: Washington and Riyadh signed a civilian nuclear cooperation framework, but the deal is now tied up in political conditions over Israel and Abraham Accords, raising nonproliferation concerns. Diplomacy Search: Pakistan is exploring a path to restart stalled US-Iran talks, following a China-backed push, as obstacles remain high. Regional Fallout: Bulgaria approved temporary US KC-135 refueling deployments at Bezmer to support Middle East operations, while Eurozone business activity edged up but “war clouds” from oil and shipping risks linger. Local Economy Pressure: Fuel retailers in the Philippines warned of another diesel and gasoline increase next week as Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb risks tighten supply.

US-Iran Escalation: Drones and missiles hit across the region as the US carried out its 13th straight night of strikes on Iran; explosions were reported near a US base in northern Iraq and sirens sounded in Bahrain, while Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers pushed oil back above $100. Shipping & Energy Pressure: Diversions around the Strait of Hormuz are stuck at about 4x pre-crisis levels, with longer port dwell times and higher insurance costs—raising costs for Gulf and wider markets. US Trade Shock: The US imposed fresh 10–12.5% forced-labour tariffs on 60 trading partners, including several Gulf states, adding another layer of economic strain. Saudi Nuclear Deal: The US and Saudi Arabia agreed a civilian nuclear cooperation framework, but Trump’s added Israel-normalisation condition leaves the deal’s future in limbo. UAE Tourism Push: Dubai launched “Dubai Invite” to pay residents rewards for bringing visitors, aiming to offset tourism slump tied to regional conflict. Digital Government: Saudi Arabia topped the MENA digital government services index for a fourth year, scoring 99% overall. Local Mobility: Abu Dhabi taxi fare talks are underway after DTC’s acquisition of National Taxi, with any changes needing government approval. Cybersecurity: Mastercard warned cyberattacks across MENA rose 13% and data-breach costs are high, with a major staffing shortfall.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers, pushing Brent above $100 a barrel and reviving fears of wider supply disruption as the US weighs further strikes on Iran. US-Iran Escalation: Trump said he’s considering a “massive attack” and warned any damages to ships will be paid from frozen Iranian funds, while lawmakers debated limiting the war. Saudi Nuclear Deal Twist: Trump added a new condition that Saudi Arabia must normalize ties with Israel via the Abraham Accords, drawing pushback that “tweets don’t overturn signed deals.” Markets Under Pressure: Wall Street slid as Alphabet and Tesla spooked investors with heavy AI spending plans; bond yields and borrowing costs jumped alongside oil. Local Impacts: Diesel prices surged, hitting commercial fishing and boating in Gloucester, while UK consumer confidence showed a “Burnham bounce” despite renewed Gulf tensions. Pakistan Migration Policy: Pakistan launched a National Immigration and Welfare Policy 2026 to improve safe overseas work pathways and protect migrants from exploitation. Business Moves in MENA: Etihad and Air Peace signed an interline pact to boost travel links between the UAE and West/Central Africa.

Middle East Crisis: The US warned Iran that any attack on ships through the Strait of Hormuz would trigger strikes on Iranian infrastructure, as the conflict widened after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers and a fresh US strike campaign against Iran. Energy & Markets: Oil pushed toward $98 a barrel amid Red Sea and Hormuz risks, feeding inflation worries and lifting European bond yields as the ECB weighed the impact of the renewed Middle East shock. Diplomacy in Focus: ASEAN Regional Forum talks in Manila put the Middle East crisis and South China Sea tensions front and center, with calls for restraint and renewed dialogue. Regional Ceasefire Push: Pakistan and Oman urged all sides to uphold a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and respect international law, warning that escalation threatens shipping and energy security. US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Fallout: Israeli opposition leaders slammed the US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement, calling it a major failure for Netanyahu’s government. Philippines Relief for OFWs: Manila said it identified P22.79 billion in government savings to expand assistance for vulnerable groups hit by the Middle East crisis, including an expanded Uplift package for poor and near-poor families and OFWs. Gulf Aviation Leadership: Dubai Airports named new senior leaders to strengthen operations and technology/cybersecurity capacity at DXB.

Middle East War & Shipping: Pakistan condemned Houthi threats to Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping, warning any attack on Pakistani-flagged vessels would be treated as a grave national security threat. Red Sea Tensions: The Houthis warned ships using Saudi ports could be targeted, after reports of tankers rerouting away from Bab al-Mandeb. Nuclear Diplomacy: The U.S. signed a 30-year civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, giving a pathway to enrich fuel—sparking Israeli and U.S. congressional worries about proliferation and safeguards. UK-Iran Security: The UK temporarily withdrew embassy staff from Iran and urged Britons to avoid travel, citing heightened arrest and detention risks. UNESCO & Lebanon: UNESCO added the ancient Lebanese city of Tyre to its heritage danger list after damage from recent conflict. Energy Shock Economics: Oil prices pushed above $90 amid Strait of Hormuz escalation, feeding inflation worries and business confidence hits in the UK. Local Business & Policy: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery resumed naira petrol sales after a brief dollar pricing shift, raising prices by N140 per litre.