AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Talks Under Strain: The NYT reports US officials feared Israel could target Iran’s top negotiators, warning regional governments that Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf might be assassinated—raising stakes for the Doha talks. Lebanon Ceasefire Returns: IOM says over 640,000 displaced Lebanese have gone back home as clashes between Hezbollah and Israel ease after a June 21 ceasefire. Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran’s Khamenei funeral week is set to draw millions, with Tehran warning the US and Israel against “miscalculation,” while regional delegations arrive. Gulf Security Fallout: The US Navy says Bahrain families won’t return before the fall school semester due to ongoing Middle East uncertainty. Pakistan Growth Watch: SBP projects FY26 GDP growth around 3.75–4.75% despite the Middle East crisis, with remittances expected above $41.5bn. Trade Pressure: Pakistan’s commerce ministry warns exports keep suffering when incentives favor domestic industries; it cites Strait of Hormuz disruptions and tougher rice competition. Energy Bills: Caribbean Utilities confirms electricity bill changes tied to fuel and regulatory charges. Startup & Tech: Sanabil Accelerator’s 11th cohort wraps with eight MENA startups; Unique Group appoints a new CEO.

US-Iran Tensions and Hormuz Fallout: The US and Iran reportedly agreed to halt fresh tit-for-tat strikes and held indirect talks in Doha, but the Strait of Hormuz disruption has already hit jobs and livelihoods across the region and beyond, with the ILO warning of falling wages, output and employment. Iran Leadership Mourning: Iran has begun a week-long public mourning for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Tehran expecting massive turnout and tight security as the country navigates a sensitive leadership transition. Oil Markets Watch: Brent has slid sharply as Hormuz risks ease, but analysts warn the market is still pricing expectations faster than physical recovery, keeping volatility on the table. UK Services Squeeze: Britain’s services sector contracted again in June, with firms citing Middle East conflict uncertainty and cost pressures, even as some hospitality demand got a World Cup lift. Gulf Business and Payments: Oman Arab Bank marked a decade of payments modernization with BPC, including Visa tokenization for more secure digital transactions. Regional Diplomacy: Kenya’s PM cabinet secretary Musalia Mudavadi begins talks in Saudi Arabia focused on labour protections for Kenyan workers and broader economic cooperation. Tech and Media: Google Play launched a $1m indie games fund for African developers, while UAE media growth is framed as a soft-power engine.

Fuel Relief & Energy Policy: Namibia cut July fuel prices after a N$1.3bn relief bill and said it will overhaul fuel procurement to reduce import premiums. Energy Efficiency Push: Dozens of governments backed the IEA call to make energy efficiency a cornerstone of policy, citing Middle East-driven volatility and the need to protect households and SMEs. Water Security in Oman: Nama Water Services awarded a 15-year RO878mn contract to a SUEZ-led consortium to run water and wastewater systems for 2.3mn people, with performance-linked targets. MENA Energy Deal: Genel Energy agreed to buy Capricorn Energy for $360m, gaining Egypt exposure while diversifying beyond Kurdistan risks. Kurdistan-Iraq Security: Reports say Iran’s IRGC ambushed Kurdish fighters in western Iran, killing six, as clashes spread. Gaza/Lebanon Ceasefire Reality: Coverage highlights continued strikes and the gap between postwar plans “on paper” and what can be implemented inside Gaza. Business & Industry: Stellantis’ South Africa plant update and AirTrunk’s Malaysia JHB3/JHB4 data centre expansion point to ongoing investment in manufacturing and AI infrastructure. Qatar Sports Tech: Doha hosts eFIBA World Finals Qatar Season 4 at Mall of Qatar, featuring teams including Qatar, Lebanon and Algeria ahead of the 2027 FIBA World Cup.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran warned oil tankers to use approved routes or face “forceful response,” after US-Iran talks in Qatar and renewed focus on navigation protocols. Israel-Lebanon Posture: Netanyahu reiterated Israel won’t leave southern Lebanon until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated, as US officials weigh new basing options to reduce exposure to Iranian drones and missiles. Syrian-Hezbollah Opening: Syria’s foreign minister said Damascus is open to meeting Hezbollah “if interests require it,” signaling careful alliance management after the new government’s rise. Qatar Finance Push: QFC-backed Franklin Templeton is setting up a Qatar entity, while Dukhan Bank won a MENA banking award for its business card offering. UAE Business & Tech: Presight AI signed a Kazakhstan smart-road deal, and Abu Dhabi’s real estate market stayed strong with higher transaction volumes. Iraq Ports: Iraq plans to invite bids for remaining Faw port piers, aiming to complete phases before full commissioning. Healthcare Infrastructure: Abu Dhabi Biobank and Bascom Palmer Eye Institute will establish the Middle East’s first eye bank in Abu Dhabi. Philippines Energy Security: Manila is considering a new government oil reserve storage, targeting completion in 2027-2028.

WTA Tennis: The WTA Finals are moving from Riyadh to Indian Wells, ending the Saudi hosting deal early after criticism over human-rights records. Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraqi forces carried out high-profile Green Zone raids, detaining lawmakers and senior officials in cases tied to suspected corruption networks. US-Iran Talks: Qatar says U.S.-Iran discussions will stay at technical level for now, with senior meetings uncertain as the interim framework aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East Diplomacy: The U.S. is taking a more traditional diplomatic approach on Lebanon and Israel, even as the “beginning of the beginning” signals a long road ahead. Energy & Trade: Oil sentiment remains tied to Hormuz and the ceasefire track, while Gulf sovereign wealth funds posted a record first-half investment pace despite Iran-war volatility. UK-Israel Pressure: The UK is weighing coordinated restrictions on goods from Israeli West Bank settlements, escalating pressure amid settlement expansion debate. Business & Finance: UBS warns global wealth growth may shift toward a “diamond” pattern that could limit opportunities for wealth managers, while Nigeria’s private sector growth cooled in June as costs rose.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Oil prices ticked up after Iran said it would not meet Trump envoys directly in Qatar, keeping pressure on a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and raising uncertainty for shipping through the chokepoint. Regional Security: Kuwait’s Cabinet condemned renewed Iranian military aggressions and ordered peak readiness, while also freezing unapproved state consulting contracts. Iraq’s Investment Push: Iraq plans an Energy and Development Fund backed by the Central Bank, inviting Gulf partners and Western investors to finance strategic infrastructure and energy projects. Banking & Compliance: Qatar-based Region Trade Bank named a new board of international finance-integrity and sanctions experts as Iraq’s banking sector deepens regional links. Jordan Jobs Plan: The World Bank approved a $700m loan for Jordan to turn macro stability into private investment, jobs, and a green-and-digital transition. Saudi Power Storage: Saudi Arabia prequalified 27 firms for six utility-scale battery storage projects totaling 3,000MW. Dubai Luxury Real Estate: Binghatti said a Bugatti Residences penthouse deal reached AED200m, highlighting continued demand for ultra-luxury homes in Business Bay. Food Prices Watch: Philippines leaders are still weighing whether to extend a P50/kg imported rice price cap as the wet-season harvest approaches. Manufacturing Pulse: A Philippines PMI survey showed modest June expansion, but confidence fell amid lingering cost pressures.

Telecom Deal: Zain wins a 25-year Syria mobile license after a $747m bid, taking 75% of a new operating entity and aiming for a Q1 2027 launch while transitioning services for 6.3m customers. Maritime & Energy Shock: The Strait of Hormuz reopens after 100+ days of disruption, but UNCTAD warns the damage to prices and supply chains will linger for vulnerable economies. Security Review: Israel expands its review of Hezbollah’s cross-border threat, now focusing on a tunnel network that officials say includes command centers, weapons depots, drones and ammunition—pushing plans to reduce reliance on US arms. Regional Diplomacy: China’s envoy to Kuwait reiterates deeper strategic partnership and says Beijing is backing peace and de-escalation amid Middle East tensions. Economy & Trade: Central banks remain bullish on gold as a strategic asset, with OMFIF reporting growing official demand even as prices swing. Business & Markets: Global air cargo demand rose in May, while markets track easing Middle East pressure alongside ongoing macro worries.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The Philippines urged restraint after renewed attacks on vessels and US-Iran strikes raised fears for shipping and oil markets. Regional Security: Iran-linked clashes and attacks in Iran’s border and Kurdish areas left security personnel dead and underscored spillover risk. Minimum Wage Pressure: Labor groups in the Philippines criticized a staggered NCR wage hike, saying inflation tied to the Middle East oil crisis is squeezing workers. UAE Trade & Deals: A UAE-Ukraine CEPA took effect, cutting customs duties on most goods to boost non-oil trade. Qatar-Türkiye Space Push: Es’hailSat signed with Türksat and Thales Alenia Space for its next high-throughput satellite, expanding secure connectivity across MENA and beyond. Logistics Expansion in Dubai: DP World and Arcapita’s Lintara broke ground on a 20,000 sqm build-to-suit logistics centre in Jafza. Business & Finance: QNB will sponsor APLMA’s Asia–Middle East corridor panel in Singapore; Turner & Townsend reported Middle East revenue up 73% in 2025. Infrastructure & Aviation: Tanzania plans new airports, while India studies a month of strategic crude/LPG/LNG reserves. Energy & Trade Costs: Global air cargo demand rose 6% in May, but Middle East carriers saw a contraction tied to conflict disruptions.

US–Iran Diplomacy: The US and Iran say they’re moving toward de-escalation, but Tehran insists no US-Iran talks are scheduled, even as Trump claims fresh meetings in Qatar and markets watch for whether the ceasefire holds. Lebanon Front: Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri, aligned with Hezbollah, rejects a US-brokered Lebanon deal with Israel, warning it could deepen division and arguing only the US-Iran track can secure Israeli withdrawal. Iraq Security: Iraq sets Sept 30 for pro-Iran armed groups to disarm, warning weapons outside the state framework will face legal action as the new prime minister prepares for a Washington visit. Kurdish Tensions: Iran is reportedly pressuring Baghdad to expel or detain Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq’s Kurdistan region amid the shifting US-Iran framework. Regional Violence: Southern Syria sees renewed flare-ups after Israeli forces kill two men near the occupied Golan buffer zone, underscoring how local clashes complicate broader negotiations. Economy & Trade: IATA reports global air cargo demand up 6% in May, but Middle East carriers still face war-related contraction. Security Threats: UN chief Guterres warns terrorism is exploiting instability across the Middle East and Africa, with AI and digital platforms boosting extremist capabilities.

Israel-Lebanon Framework: Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement in Washington, setting up pilot security zones where the Lebanese army would take over while Hezbollah’s disarmament and infrastructure dismantling are verified—making the next test whether state authority can replace armed control in the south. Regional Energy & Shipping: With US-Iran tensions easing but still fragile, Strait of Hormuz disruption fears continue to rattle markets and fuel planning across the region, while officials warn energy bills could rise again even after ceasefire steps. Qatar Mediation Critique: An opinion piece argues Qatar can no longer claim neutrality, accusing Doha of political duplicity and of enabling instability while publicly targeting Israel. Iraq Power Push: Iraq plans contracts for 25GW of new electricity generation this year to strengthen the grid ahead of 2027 budget preparations. Kuwait Industry Buildout: Kuwait’s Al-Na’ayem Industrial City reached 15% completion, with handover targeted for 2032 under a BOT model and a clean-energy focus. Aviation Links: Philippine Airlines will restart Manila–Dubai nonstop flights from Oct 2, 2026 (four weekly services initially), boosting travel ties for Filipinos in the UAE. UAE Culture & Hospitality: Sharjah’s Coral Beach Resort team earned major Chef and F&B awards, while Dubai’s Wynn Al Marjan Island announced Punchdrunk’s immersive theatre for its 2027 opening.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: A “new normal” of chaos hit Gulf shipping as the US and Iran traded strikes again, while Tehran reportedly restarted crude exports from Kharg Island and Hapag-Lloyd warned routing directives are disrupting operations. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan urged all sides to uphold the US-Iran ceasefire after renewed tit-for-tat attacks, warning the truce could unravel without open communication channels. Lebanon Track: Israel said it struck Hezbollah in Lebanon as a framework deal faces pushback and fears of renewed political crisis. Energy & Safety: Saudi Aramco’s helicopter crash near Ras Tanura killed 14 Saudi nationals; authorities launched an investigation. Fuel Price Politics: Nepal’s government is delaying domestic petrol and diesel cuts despite global oil falling after Hormuz reopening, citing procedural delays. Business in the Gulf: JMC’s Bahrain delegation visit focused on after-sales readiness and spare parts support, while OMODA & JAECOO highlighted a UAE aftersales-focused model. Health Watch: A study warns bovine tuberculosis may be spreading across MENA via cattle and raw milk amid patchy surveillance.

US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets in the Gulf after a tanker was hit near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran calling it a ceasefire violation and warning of forceful response. Lebanon Flashpoint: Israel struck in southern Lebanon as Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework, raising fears the wider US-Iran track could unravel. Gulf Condemnations: Kuwait and Bahrain denounced renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks as breaches of sovereignty and urged international action. Iraq Anti-Corruption Drive: Iraqi forces raided Baghdad’s Green Zone, arresting MPs and senior officials in a widening corruption crackdown. UAE AI Diplomacy: Abu Dhabi pushed a secure AI supply-chain agenda at a Washington summit, aligning with a US-led push for trusted cross-border tech networks. Egypt Pharma Buildout: Korra Energi won a 470.7m Egyptian pound contract for the GennVax Egypt vaccine plant in the Suez Canal zone. Media Regulation: Pakistan’s PEMRA suspended Geo News for 15 days over Muharram programme content, ordering the channel to stop transmission. Energy Costs Watch: Nepal’s finance minister said fuel prices should ease as Middle East tensions improve, but domestic effects may lag. Capital Markets: Boursa Kuwait is preparing to launch an Emerging Companies Market to broaden listings for smaller firms.**

Israel-Lebanon Diplomacy: The US-brokered Israel–Lebanon framework is being hailed as a “crucial step” by EU leaders, but Hezbollah has rejected it as “null and void,” warning it links any Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament; Regional Security: Netanyahu says Israel will send a delegation to Washington to press its concerns over any long-term US-Iran nuclear deal, while also insisting Israel’s southern Lebanon security zone will remain as “there is still much work to be done”; Hezbollah Response: Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem calls the agreement humiliating and says it could legitimize an Israeli occupation, as Israel signals it may “prepare for an extended stay” if Hezbollah stays armed; Energy & Markets: Oil prices slide toward pre-conflict levels as Middle East supply worries ease, while Iran’s currency reportedly weakens after a brief post-deal rebound; Turkey-Kurd Peace: Erdogan says a legal framework for reforms tied to the PKK peace process will be submitted to parliament in mid-July after the NATO summit.

World Bank Aid: The World Bank approved $1.1 billion for Bangladesh to protect food security and livelihoods, citing Middle East-linked spikes in fertilizer and fuel prices; $300m targets urgent fertilizer imports for the Aman and Boro rice seasons, while $713m supports rapid emergency spending and cash transfers. Pakistan Aviation Relief: Pakistan cut jet fuel by Rs7.15/litre to Rs231.72, aiming to ease airline costs after global oil volatility tied to regional tensions. Gaza Diplomacy: Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered security framework in Washington, with Rubio calling it a first step toward lasting peace and security, including pilot security zones and a path to reduce hostilities. Iran–U.S. Escalation: Iran said it launched retaliatory actions after U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, as officials traded warnings and the ceasefire faced fresh strain. UAE Alert Error: UAE authorities apologized after a false missile warning triggered panic, saying a technical error in the early-warning system was fixed. Politics in India: Sonia Gandhi renewed pressure on Modi’s Gaza stance, accusing the government of “stony silence,” while BJP hit back over humanitarian aid claims. Security & Health: UNODC reported 331 million drug users in 2024, warning traffickers are exploiting technology and instability to spread more dangerous synthetics.

Middle East Peace Track: Lebanon, Israel and the US signed a trilateral framework in Washington, with Rubio calling it a “beginning of the beginning” toward a phased peace and security path after weeks of fighting in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah Response: Hezbollah signaled it will only accept the deal if Israel fully withdraws, warning “Our hands are on our weapons” and that clashes are likely otherwise. Hormuz Security & Shipping: The Pentagon said US forces struck Iranian missile/drone and coastal radar sites after an attack on the M/V Ever Lovely in the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, UN efforts and South Korean commercial vessels reported safer exits as the ceasefire stabilizes lanes. Energy Shock Spillovers: Germany warned EU methane rules could disrupt jet fuel and imported fuel supplies, as the Iran-linked energy shock reshapes Europe’s energy planning. US Domestic Politics: A Quinnipiac poll found a record share of Americans say the US is “too supportive” of Israel, underscoring widening political pressure on Washington’s Middle East role.

Middle East Security & Shipping: Iran fired a projectile at a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, with a US official identifying it as a drone, raising fresh doubts over the fragile US-Iran de-escalation and the safety of one of the world’s key oil chokepoints. US Posture in the Region: A Wall Street Journal investigation says Iran-linked strikes repeatedly hit the US Navy base in Bahrain, prompting the Pentagon to re-examine its wider Middle East footprint. Nuclear Talks: The IAEA chief said Iran’s nuclear pledge needs “very strong” verification and that talks with Tehran have only just begun, as Washington and Tehran negotiate a lasting settlement. Regional Politics: Reports that Netanyahu signalled Israel may act on Iran without US permission add pressure to India’s balancing act between Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran. Energy & Prices: OPEC expects oil demand to keep rising to 124 million bpd by 2050 despite EV growth, while producer inflation in South Africa jumped to 7.8% in May as Middle East-linked fuel costs fed into manufacturing. Business & Investment: Transrail Lighting won new MENA transmission orders worth Rs 459 crore; Egypt signed deals to localize wind turbine manufacturing and build a 2GW Gulf of Suez wind project.