AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Ceasefire Framework: The U.S. and Iran agreed on a memorandum of understanding to end months of war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump saying the naval blockade will be lifted and oil flows should resume as mines are cleared; the IMF warned recovery of energy supplies will take time. Lebanon Front Still Unstable: Israel rejected the framework and vowed not to withdraw from southern Lebanon, while Lebanon urged displaced families to delay returning amid fears of renewed strikes. Markets React, Oil Lags: Stocks jumped on peace hopes, but oil slid toward a three-month low, hitting European energy shares; analysts say full normalization could take weeks or months. Regional Diplomacy at G7: Leaders at the G7 in Evian welcomed the breakthrough, while Canada’s Carney said allies can help reinforce shipping resilience. Human Cost on the Ground: In southern Lebanon, residents and aid workers described destroyed livelihoods and shelters now replacing community spaces as the conflict reshaped daily life.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. and Iran traded strikes again, even as a framework peace path is discussed, with Iran saying the ceasefire is “meaningless” after attacks and an Indian report linking a U.S. strike to deaths of mariners. Hormuz Watch: Leaders and markets are focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil flow, after Trump signaled the blockade would be lifted and navigation restored. Israel’s Lebanon Stance: Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said IDF deployments in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza will continue “indefinitely,” rejecting any pullback tied to the U.S.-Iran track. Global Reactions: European leaders backed the memorandum and demanded “unconditional and unrestricted” freedom of navigation, while UN chief António Guterres welcomed an immediate ceasefire and a framework for talks. Markets & Energy: Risk assets rallied and oil slid as investors priced in de-escalation, with analysts warning the situation is still “not straightforward.” Human Impact in Lebanon: In Beirut, a Jesuit parish shifted from community services to sheltering about 200 displaced migrants as conflict intensified. Business & Housing: Saudi Arabia awarded Chinese firms contracts worth about $506m to build nearly 4,500 housing units, as Riyadh pushes delivery targets.

US-Iran Peace Talks Under Strain: Iran says there’s “no point” in talks after Israeli strikes on Beirut’s Dahieh, while Trump urges restraint and claims a deal is very close, as fresh violence threatens to derail negotiations and keep the Strait of Hormuz at the center of global energy fears. Lebanon Escalation: Israel carried out strikes targeting Hezbollah-linked areas in Beirut as Lebanon reported deaths and injuries, prompting warnings of retaliation and raising doubts about any emerging ceasefire framework. Gulf Security Pressure: Iran also warned Gulf neighbors after missile and drone attacks intercepted near Bahrain and Kuwait, while the US and Iran traded strikes again, underscoring how quickly diplomacy can be overtaken by battlefield moves. Markets on Edge: Traders brace for volatility as investors await any US-Iran agreement that could reopen Hormuz, while central bank decisions elsewhere add pressure. Local Impact—Mozambique Fuel Crisis: Mozambique fishermen remain ashore as fuel prices surge after Middle East-linked supply shocks, hitting livelihoods and deepening hardship. Regional Economy—Indonesia Investor Worries: Indonesia’s rupiah and stocks wobble amid energy-price fallout and policy moves that critics say unsettle investors. Finance & Policy—Bangladesh Tax Plan: Bangladesh’s NBR says the 2026-27 budget will widen the tax base by cracking down on evasion rather than raising rates.

US-Iran War Talks: Qatari mediators head to Tehran as Washington and Tehran near a framework deal to end the Middle East war, with talk of an electronic signing and a 60-day path to tackle nuclear and other issues; Iran’s stance remains mixed, and hardliners are pushing back. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: The Strait’s reopening is central to any deal, with officials warning that disruptions are already feeding energy and food price shocks. Escalation on the Ground: The US and Iran traded strikes for a second day, while Lebanon reported renewed Israeli strikes and rising casualties, as evacuation warnings spread. Gulf Security & Incidents: An Indian-flagged vessel off Oman is under search-and-rescue after an incident involving 14 crew, and a US Apache crash near Hormuz has added to fears for regional safety. Fuel Costs in the Region: Kenya’s EPRA cut June-July petrol and diesel pump prices slightly, offering brief relief amid wider Middle East-driven volatility. Local Politics & Economy: Pakistan’s information minister defended the 2026-27 budget and urged opposition to sign a Charter of Economy, as poverty figures underscore the stakes. Protest Climate in Europe: Geneva businesses boarded up ahead of anti-G7 protests, with security tightened around leaders attending the summit where the Middle East crisis is expected to feature.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day, with Iran saying the Strait of Hormuz was closed and the U.S. warning the ceasefire is being undermined as negotiations stall. Ceasefire Deal Watch: Pakistan says a U.S.-Iran agreement is “ready for signatures” and Trump claims it will be signed Sunday, with Hormuz reopening immediately after. Lebanon Front: Israel hit southern Lebanon and issued broad evacuation warnings for Nabatieh and nearby areas as the wider Iran-US talks could shape the conflict’s next phase. Regional Security & Diplomacy: Iran also fired missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, while the U.S. weighs options to use frozen Iranian assets to cover war damages. Energy Pressure: The Hormuz standoff continues to rattle global fuel flows, feeding price and supply worries across the region. Business & Society: Zain Esports powered a major PUBG MOBILE championship across seven MENA countries, showing how regional tech firms are building youth-focused platforms amid instability. Aid Response: The ADB announced $4bn in emergency financing to help countries absorb Middle East conflict shocks, including pressure on food and energy imports.

Middle East War Escalation: The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second straight day, pushing the region closer to full-scale conflict as negotiations appeared stuck; Iran said the ceasefire was “meaningless,” while the Strait of Hormuz remains central to energy and food-price fears. Lebanon Front: Israel carried out air raids in southern Lebanon despite a ceasefire framework, killing at least one and raising doubts about any deal’s durability. Gulf Security & Shipping: A U.S. Apache crash near the Strait of Hormuz was reported after crew rescue, while an Indian official linked a U.S. attack on an oil tanker to the deaths of three Indian mariners. Energy Pressure: Oil prices slid toward a three-month low, with expectations of easing fuel costs in parts of the region, even as tensions keep supply risk elevated. Egypt–Morocco Ties: Egypt’s ambassador to Morocco highlighted deep cultural cooperation and shared intellectual links as both countries expand cultural engagement. UAE Business: Abu Dhabi’s IHC launched the first tranche of a Dh5bn share buyback programme, citing strong cash flow amid Iran-war uncertainty. Human Impact: In Beirut, a Jesuit parish shifted from community services to sheltering displaced migrants as conflict intensified.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority says it has fully closed the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping, escalating after U.S. airstrikes and raising fresh fears of a global energy shock. US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day, with negotiations described as stuck and officials trading claims over whether any ceasefire is still meaningful. Deal Talk, Doubts Remain: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif says the U.S. and Iran have agreed the final wording of a deal to end the war and reopen Hormuz, but both sides still accuse each other of bad faith. Lebanon at the Center: A key vulnerability in any U.S.-Iran push is Lebanon, where Israel-Hezbollah fighting has displaced more than a million and the U.S. is seen as deeply implicated. Markets React: Oil prices slid on hopes of progress, while the Canadian dollar edged down as investors weighed peace-deal optimism against ongoing risk. G7 Security Tightened: France and Switzerland boosted security and restricted border crossings ahead of G7 protests, with Middle East conflict expected on the agenda. Arms Trafficking Case: A British court found a UK businessman and Greek associate guilty of brokering illegal fighter jets, missiles and grenades to warlords across Africa and the Middle East. Heritage & Tourism: Syria’s Umayyad Mosque enters a new restoration era as the country rebuilds tourism after the Assad era.

Middle East War Escalation: The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day, with negotiations stalled and Iran saying the ceasefire is effectively meaningless; an Indian official linked a U.S. attack on an oil tanker to the deaths of three Indian mariners, underscoring risks to shipping. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: The EU moved to use its freedom-of-navigation sanctions regime against Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran says it targeted U.S. assets in Bahrain and Kuwait and warned the Gulf against further attacks. Global Economy Hit: The World Bank cut 2026 global growth to 2.5%, calling the Middle East conflict an energy shock that revives inflation and threatens development gains. Aviation and Energy Costs: IATA warned the oil shock is the biggest in global oil history, threatening jet fuel availability and raising costs as airlines face airspace disruptions. UK Politics and Aid: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said charities should not support illegal Israeli settlements, as sanctions and Charity Commission scrutiny expand. Qatar-China Investment: Invest Qatar and QNB hosted a Beijing investor dialogue to deepen Qatar-China cooperation, while QFZ signed MoUs to support advanced insulation manufacturing in Umm Alhoul Free Zone. Cambodia Clean Energy & Exports: Cambodia and the ADB plan to expand renewable financing via local banks, and a protocol clears dried longan exports to China.

US-Iran Escalation: The US and Iran traded strikes for a second straight day, raising fears of a wider war, while an Indian official said a US attack on an oil tanker allegedly trying to breach a blockade killed three Indian mariners. Ceasefire Talks: Trump said a “settlement” is near and the Strait of Hormuz could open “as soon as” documents are signed, but Iran’s foreign ministry said no final decision has been made. Energy Shock: With Hormuz at the center of negotiations, the conflict is driving up fuel costs and squeezing economies; the World Bank cut global growth to 2.5% and warned of unequal impacts, while the IMF said euro-area growth is hit and inflation risks are rising. Markets & Inflation: US producer prices jumped for the biggest annual gain in 3½ years, and Wall Street swung sharply higher after Trump signaled deal progress. Regional Fallout: Bahrain and Kuwait reported Iranian missile and drone attacks, and experts warned strikes on Iran’s water facilities could amount to war crimes. Aviation Update: Qatar Airways will resume daily Doha–Philadelphia flights from 1 August 2026.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: Iran says it fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, while the U.S. reported intercepts and strikes as the ceasefire frays; the U.S. also weighs letting Gulf allies tap frozen Iranian assets to cover war damages. U.S.-Iran Tit-for-Tat: Fresh exchanges followed new U.S. strikes, with Iran declaring the Strait closed to all vessels even as the U.S. said transit continued. Lebanon as Dealbreaker: Reporting highlights how Lebanon’s battlefield could derail any U.S.-Iran bargain, with Beirut repeatedly pulled into the wider Iran-Israel cycle. Military Incident Near Hormuz: A U.S. Army Apache helicopter crash near the Strait saw two crew rescued; CENTCOM has not confirmed whether it was shot down or mechanical failure. Gulf Rights Under Pressure: Human Rights Watch and Amnesty say GCC states have tightened controls on expression and assembly, especially affecting migrant workers’ ability to speak out. Qatar Backs Space Intelligence: Qatar Investment Authority joins a €1bn ICEYE Series F to expand sovereign space-based monitoring. Dubai Urban Push: Emaar plans a Dh200b district for 150,000 residents with metro links and EV-friendly mobility. Aviation & Tourism Fallout: Wizz Air profits plunge as Iran-war route cancellations hit earnings; Emirates is named Best Overall Airline in the Middle East. Tech & Commerce: Visa says 91% of Egyptians use AI while shopping; ACI Worldwide powers Kwik Payments’ next phase in Africa.

U.S.-Iran Escalation: A U.S. Army Apache crashed near the Strait of Hormuz; two pilots were rescued, while Washington says Iran shot it down and Iran claims broader drone losses—raising fears of a wider Middle East spiral. Gulf Ceasefire Under Strain: Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, with both sides trading strikes as the U.S. presses for a deal and considers letting Gulf allies use frozen Iranian assets for damages. Nuclear Safety Alarm: The IAEA says a drone hit the Barakah plant’s generator facility in the UAE, damaging power to Unit 3, warning attacks on nuclear infrastructure are a “no-go.” Qatar-AI Finance: Qatar’s Awqaf and Wahed MENA signed an MoU to pilot an AI platform for Sharia-compliant equity analysis. World Cup Politics & Access: FIFA chief Infantino urged people to “chill” over visa and entry problems affecting referees and media ahead of the 2026 tournament. Saudi Football Spending Scrutiny: Saudi Arabia’s $2bn star-studded spending spotlighted the World Cup push, but the national team’s results remain shaky. Bangladesh Development Boost: Bangladesh signed a $250m AIIB loan for economic governance support, citing Middle East conflict spillovers. Markets & Costs: Inflation rose to 3% in May in one report, with transport, rents and food linked to the war’s price shock.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. says it carried out strikes on Iran after an Apache helicopter crash near the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran vows retaliation and the two sides trade accusations amid a fragile ceasefire. Gulf Ceasefire Strain: Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, intercepted early, while the U.S. weighs options to pressure Iran financially by tapping frozen assets. Regional Security & Mediation: Pakistan’s interior minister arrived in Iran for mediation as both Washington and Tehran push for a deal. Energy & Markets: The Strait of Hormuz remains a key shipping and oil chokepoint, keeping pressure on global supply chains and inflation fears. Business Continuity: Qatar’s dispute center held a seminar on force majeure and crisis-ready contracts, reflecting how firms are planning for disruption. GCC Credit Watch: S&P says GCC credit profiles are still resilient despite the Iran conflict, though corporate risk is more exposed. Aviation Connectivity: Flydubai won approval for direct Pokhara–Dubai flights from Sept. 23, boosting Nepal’s tourism and Middle East links.

Gulf Flashpoint: President Trump blamed Iran for shooting down a U.S. Army Apache near the Strait of Hormuz and said the U.S. “must respond,” after a drone boat rescued two pilots who were “safe and uninjured,” further straining efforts to turn a fragile ceasefire into a wider deal. Humanitarian Fallout: The war’s spillovers are worsening hunger and aid delivery, with the World Food Programme warning tens of millions could face severe food insecurity as costs and shipping disruptions rise. Regional Escalation: Iran said it fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait that were intercepted, while the U.S. weighs tougher economic pressure, including possible use of frozen Iranian assets. Aviation Under Pressure: Airlines worldwide are cutting flights and raising fares as jet fuel costs surge, with IATA warning 2026 profits are far lower amid Hormuz-linked supply risks. Diplomacy & Rights: Kurdish politicians and 82 Nobel laureates urged the Council of Europe to grant Abdullah Öcalan the “right to hope,” as Turkey’s implementation deadline nears. Holy Land Focus: France honored Latin Patriarch Pierbattista Pizzaballa with the Legion of Honor, highlighting protection of Christians and the status quo in Jerusalem. Business & Energy: Saudi Arabia qualified 24 bidders for a mineral exploration licensing round, while the Hormuz shock continues to ripple through global markets and household budgets.

US-Iran Nuclear Diplomacy: The US is pushing the IAEA Board of Governors to verify Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, with a draft resolution urging renewed inspections and warning of possible UN Security Council referral. Gaza Crossings Blocked: UN chief António Guterres voiced deep concern after Israel closed Gaza crossings, saying no crossing points are open and aid is being halted from outside. Iran-Israel Truce Under Strain: Trump said the US will keep pursuing an Iran nuclear deal regardless of Israel’s stance, while Iran and Israel traded fire again before pausing; Israel also issued evacuation alerts for Lebanon’s Tyre and surrounding towns. Lebanon Escalation: Iran said it halted operations after a “painful response,” while Israeli strikes continued in the north and officials reported heavy tolls and displacement. Regional Security Talks: Pakistani and Lebanese army chiefs met to discuss security amid the Lebanon strikes, as UNIFIL reported repeated airspace violations. Trade & Economy: Türkiye and Canada began free trade agreement talks; Egypt’s fintech Blnk raised $37m to expand point-of-sale credit.

Iran-Israel Ceasefire Pause: Iran and Israel said they’ve halted direct attacks after the most direct clash since April, with Trump urging both sides to stop “shooting” and warning Netanyahu against escalation that could leave Israel “alone” against Iran. Lebanon Front Still Hot: Even as Iran and Israel step back, Hezbollah and Israel’s Lebanon campaign continue, with Israel striking Tyre and warning it will persist against Hezbollah. Red Sea Pressure: Yemen’s Houthis declared a Red Sea blockade for Israeli ships, threatening attacks and escalation across the region. Gaza Aid Disrupted: Israel suspended Gaza humanitarian aid deliveries and closed crossings after Iran’s missile attack, despite claims of sufficient aid inflow. Palestinian Media Under Fire: A Palestinian journalists group recorded 55 violations against journalists in May, including arrests, obstruction, and live-fire incidents. EU Backs Egypt Maritime Security: The EU approved €20m military aid for Egypt to upgrade naval capabilities and protect Red Sea and Mediterranean routes. Arab League Diplomacy: The Arab League held preparatory talks for the June 22–23 Arab-European ministerial in Amman, focusing on shared political and economic priorities.

Iran-Israel Escalation: Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel after an Israeli strike on Beirut’s Dahieh, with sirens in multiple regions and Israel saying it intercepted the barrage; hours later, Israel struck targets across Iran including the Mahshahr petrochemical complex and said it dismantled Iranian defense systems. Lebanon Front: Israel vowed to intensify operations against Hezbollah despite US calls for restraint, while Iran warned further attacks on Lebanon would bring “crushing blows.” Yemen Red Sea Shock: Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli shipping and vowed to target Israel-affiliated vessels, adding pressure to already strained Red Sea routes. Diplomacy Under Strain: Trump urged both sides to return to negotiations and told Netanyahu not to retaliate, as Iran blamed the US for ceasefire breaches and said talks would be affected. Markets and Energy: Oil jumped toward/above $95 as the Strait of Hormuz risk returned to focus; stocks slid, the rupee weakened, and gold dipped on rate worries. Travel Warnings: India issued fresh advisories urging citizens to avoid Iran and exit immediately; Tehran also suspended flights at Mehrabad. Cyber Threats: A pro-Palestinian hacking group warned of “most devastating” cyberattacks on critical infrastructure of Israel and allies.