AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Tensions: Markets stayed jittery as the 60-day Iran truce expired and Tehran warned it will shift to a “fully offensive” posture, pushing oil higher and lifting bond yields. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Trump escalated rhetoric, threatening to bomb Oman if it “stands in our way” of a Hormuz deal, while Iran and Oman continued talks. Shipping Costs: Container shipping charges from South Korea to the Middle East rose again in July, adding to cost pressures for regional trade. Jordan Politics & Budget Prep: Jordanian opinion pieces focused on the latest Cabinet reshuffle, with writers saying advance disclosures were meant to cool public appetite for further shake-ups, alongside preparations for the 2027 budget and bank credit moves. Regional Security Diplomacy: Turkey’s top diplomat visited eastern Libya, signaling Ankara’s expanding reach and raising fresh questions about how Libya’s split is managed amid wider Middle East competition. Food Security: A UN report put chronic hunger at 645 million people in 2025 and flagged the rising cost of a healthy diet as inflation bites. Energy & Industry: Nigeria’s trade finance challenges were highlighted as oil and non-oil deals struggle with financing structures, while shipping and power costs keep weighing on business.

Iran-US Deadline: The 60-day US-Iran negotiation window ends today with no extension announced, leaving the war without a clear roadmap as tensions rise and oil stays supported by Strait of Hormuz fears. Hormuz Pressure: Iran says it is close to finalising an Oman transit plan for shipping, while Trump again threatens Oman with bombing if it “gets in the way.” Gaza Diplomacy: US envoy Jared Kushner, with Tony Blair and others, met Hamas in Egypt and is now set to meet Netanyahu as Israel rejects the US-backed 15-point Gaza roadmap, insisting Hamas must be fully disarmed first. Regional Security Shift: Trump hailed the new Mecca joint defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan as a sign the region is “coming together,” even as analysts question whether such deals can replace US security guarantees. Shipping & Economy: Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to slow shipping, while Middle East conflict uncertainty weighs on markets and raises costs for energy-importing economies. Jordan Politics: Jordanian analysts scrutinised a Cabinet reshuffle and budget preparations, linking domestic governance moves to wider regional realignments.

Gaza Diplomacy: US envoy Jared Kushner met Hamas leaders in Egypt as Washington pushes its Gaza “disarmament” peace plan, with Israel still insisting Hamas must be fully disarmed before any troop withdrawal. Regional Security: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed after tanker attacks, while US-Iran talks to ease the crisis reportedly stalled—keeping oil prices supported. Lebanon Front: Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least 11 people, underscoring how the Gaza track is spilling into wider conflict. Mecca Defense Pact: Jordanian opinion pieces spotlight the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement linking Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan as a sign of shifting regional security architecture. Business & Markets: Investors stayed cautious amid Middle East risk and inflation worries; in Australia, NAB flagged home-lending pressure tied partly to the Middle East conflict and higher rates. Labour & Society: Bahrain’s talabat won an award for combating trafficking, citing its rider safety and worker-protection efforts.

Iran-U.S. Tensions: Iran’s army chief Amir Hatami announced a $30,000 bounty for captured or killed U.S. soldiers, as Tehran also vowed “resistance” until “complete defeat” of the U.S. and Israel. Hormuz Pressure & Oil Costs: The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with attacks and threats keeping energy prices and inflation worries front and center for central banks. Regional Security Pact: Turkey’s Erdoğan said Egypt could join the Mecca Defence Agreement linking Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, while Saudi concerns reportedly grow over Cairo’s ties to Abu Dhabi. Gaza Mediation: A senior Hamas delegation led by Khalil al-Hayya met Egypt’s intelligence chief in Cairo ahead of a Kushner visit, as mediators try to salvage a fraying ceasefire. Lebanon & Strikes: Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed multiple people, underscoring how ceasefire talks collide with battlefield realities. Aviation Disruption: Middle East airlines face heavy losses tied to the Iran-war shock, while Hormuz disruptions continue to ripple through travel and logistics. Business & Connectivity: MDLBEAST Foundation opened applications for XPERFORM 2026, and FasterCapital backed a Maldives eSIM startup to speed cross-border mobile connectivity.

Gaza Diplomacy: Hamas chief Khalil al-Hayya is heading to Cairo for talks with Egyptian intelligence ahead of Jared Kushner’s planned Gaza visit, as Israel rejects a proposed roadmap and mediators press for renewed pressure on Netanyahu. Hormuz Flashpoints: Iran says Qatar is holding three missing pilots (Qatar denies), while the UAE blames Iran for another vessel attack in the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile Trump again signals the strait could be treated as “US territory,” as Iran vows to keep it closed under its own control. Lebanon Escalation: Israeli strikes killed 11 in southern Lebanon amid renewed fears after the June truce, with Hezbollah-linked attacks cited by Israel. Yemen War Fears: Yemenis in port areas like Mokha are bracing for a return to all-out conflict as Houthi-government fighting disrupts daily life and displacement resumes. Regional Business & Investment: Kuwait touts a major FDI push, highlighting the Shaheen Project as a landmark foreign investment deal; Energy & Costs: road and fuel disruptions tied to West Asia conflict are already reshaping budgets and prices, with shipping slowdowns raising pressure on refined oil markets. Sports & Culture: Qatar’s Al Janoub Arena opens with Qatar-China basketball ahead of the 2027 FIBA World Cup, while Pinoy Popstar Middle East 2026 nears its grand finale.

Hormuz Tensions: Iran and Oman are edging toward a “shipping map” deal to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, amid mounting tanker attacks and fears for global oil flows. Lebanon-Israel Escalation: Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed nine, with Hezbollah-linked attacks cited as the trigger, as hostilities remain fragile after a June lull. Afghanistan Crisis: The Taliban marked five years in power with a Kabul parade, while aid groups and UN-linked bodies warn humanitarian and social crises are worsening, especially for women and girls. West Bank Flashpoint: The US is urging Netanyahu to publicly condemn settler actions in Qusra, where families say they were trapped and cut off from water and electricity. US Military Strain: Reports say sailors on the USS Abraham Lincoln face deteriorating conditions and mental health concerns, with a replacement carrier expected. Regional Security Pact: Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani defense coordination is being framed as a message that attacks on Gulf security threaten the wider region. Oil Market Pressure: Brent rose as deadlock over Hormuz persists, keeping prices and fuel subsidies under strain across the region.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Trump says he will soon declare Hormuz “US territory” as the US maintains an indefinite naval blockade and shipping traffic grinds toward a near standstill after tanker attacks. Iran Pressure & Sanctions: Washington signals “economic isolation” measures against Iran next week while Iran rejects intimidation and insists the strait remains under its authority. US Military Strain: Reports of deteriorating conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln—plus a sailor jumping overboard—are prompting the US to rush the USS George Washington toward the Middle East. Regional Security: CENTCOM begins a multinational suicide-drone task force in the Middle East, inviting regional allies to join. Energy Shock: Oil rises over $1 amid tanker attacks and blockade fears, with consumers facing higher fuel costs. Afghanistan Rights & Aid: UN urges donors not to cut funding for women in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan as restrictions deepen and humanitarian needs grow. Egypt Economy: IMF says Egypt’s economy grew 5% in Q3 FY2025/26, beating expectations, though conflict impacts may show more in the next fiscal year. Business & Finance: Mastercard’s $1.8bn BVNK deal signals stablecoins’ push into mainstream payments, while Pakistan’s petroleum dealers postpone a strike after a margin increase.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “grinds to a near standstill” after two more attacks, with the US warning it can keep a naval blockade on Iran “indefinitely” as talks stall and transits drop. Regional Security Architecture: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan’s Mecca-style joint defense deal signals a NATO-like shift in West Asian geopolitics, driven by worries about US reliability and Iran’s growing leverage. Christian Community in Jerusalem: Reports say harassment against Christians in Jerusalem has nearly tripled over four years, with nuns now relying on Jewish bodyguards after violent incidents. Turkey’s AI Push: Türkiye’s $58bn tech market is being showcased ahead of GITEX Ai Türkiye, with plans for major data-centre and AI talent expansion. Business Impact from Middle East Conflict: Jaguar Land Rover flags sales and profit pressure tied to “market disruption” from the Middle East conflict plus a supplier fire. Tourism and Travel Links: The Middle East crisis is also reshaping travel demand, while Philippines-Türkiye talks focus on discounted Manila–Istanbul fares for OFWs.

Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iran and the US trade accusations as Washington eyes an indefinite naval blockade and shipping through Hormuz stays thin, while oil and diesel markets tighten. Kuwait Energy Shock: Kuwait’s oil exports remain crippled because it must pass through Hormuz, leaving the country exposed to the wider Gulf war. Iran-US Tensions: Iran’s top diplomat says the US miscalculated due to “intelligence failures,” as regional disruption hits shipping firms like Hapag-Lloyd. Oil Market Stress: Wall Street warns of a “perfect storm” diesel crunch, with refined-product shortages worsening even as crude steadies below $100. Qatar Capital Markets: Qatar Investment Authority invests in Lesha Bank’s fund, backing locally managed Sharia-compliant equities. UAE Family Finance: Several UAE banks offer interest-free school-fee instalments, with rules varying by provider. Pakistan Water Red Line: PM Shehbaz Sharif warns India that every drop of Pakistan’s water is a “red line,” promising direct response if New Delhi doesn’t back down. Yemen Security: Clashes between Iran-backed Houthis and Yemen’s government forces raise fears of a renewed front. Oman Oil Spill: A tanker spill off Oman expands into protected areas, threatening coastline and wildlife.

Middle East Shipping Crisis: US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz pressure keep disrupting regional trade routes, with reports of ship attacks and renewed clashes in Yemen adding to oil and freight volatility. India’s Trade Pressure: India’s goods trade deficit hit a six-month high as imports rose on the back of higher oil costs tied to the Middle East conflict, while exports to the region still grew. Gulf Energy Moves: UAE’s Masdar is exploring clean power partnerships and potential fuel stockpiling links with the Philippines, aiming to use storage infrastructure as a regional buffer. MENA Finance & Markets: Abu Dhabi’s exchange is rolling out conversational AI access to live market data, while broader MENA dealmaking and banking awards highlight continued investment momentum. Tech & AI in Turkey: Türkiye is pushing a fast-growing AI and data-centre push, with major funding plans and talent targets aimed at turning the country into a Eurasian digital corridor. Aviation Watch: Incheon Airport overtook Heathrow and Changi to become the world’s busiest international hub in early 2026, reflecting shifting geopolitics affecting Middle East transfer traffic.

Strait of Hormuz pressure: Iran says there’s been “no progress” in reviving a June interim US deal as shipping attacks keep oil markets jumpy, while Trump again claimed the US has “total control” of Hormuz. Energy prices: Fuel remains steady in India’s major cities even as Brent slips on deadlocked US-Iran talks, with analysts warning the wider Middle East standoff is still feeding volatility. Gaza and drone strikes: Israel says a drone strike targeted a Hamas commander in northern Gaza, as peace-track officials face pressure over continued targeted attacks. Regional security architecture: The US is pushing Greece’s Great Sea Interconnector (Greece–Cyprus–Israel) as a priority for IMEC, aiming to strengthen energy routes and cooperation. Banking and remittances: Doha Bank won MEED awards for “Best Retail Bank” and “Best For Remittances,” highlighting digital onboarding and a unified remittance platform. Local economy hit by conflict: SkyCity in New Zealand is reviewing its operating model, citing sustained pressure on customer spending that it links to the Middle East crisis. Diplomatic fallout: Colombia’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights triggered rapid condemnations from Arab states, with the Arab League rejecting the move.

Red Sea Security: The IEA warned oil stockpiles are “rapidly depleting,” as renewed Iran-linked tensions keep supply buffers shrinking and prices swinging. US-Iran Diplomacy: Reuters reports Iran says there’s been “absolutely no progress” on reviving a June interim Gulf deal with Washington, after attacks on shipping pushed oil higher. Shipping Attacks: UKMTO and Yemeni sources say a vessel in Bab el-Mandeb was hit, killing four crew; the incident highlights how Red Sea risk is spreading beyond the usual hotspots. Regional Defense Realignment: Analysts say Saudi Arabia is building defensive alliances, but attacks continue—while a new Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan pact fuels debate over whether it’s a rival security bloc or burden-sharing. West Bank Flashpoint: Reuters describes clashes between Israeli troops and settlers near Qusra, as tensions rise amid more settlement activity. Energy Prices at Home: Germany’s inflation hit 2.8% in July, with fuel and energy costs tied to Middle East war dynamics and the expiry of a petrol tax cut. Business & Mobility: Jinko ESS and UNDP-backed work in the Middle East powers an electric bus charging station with solar storage, aiming to improve resilience amid grid outages.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: Iran says the Strait will stay restricted unless US conditions are met, keeping oil and gas prices jumpy and adding fresh pressure to energy-dependent economies. Markets & Inflation: Wall Street cooled ahead of US inflation data as investors weigh whether higher oil will feed through to consumer prices and rate hikes. Credit Watch: Fitch affirmed India’s BBB- rating, citing solid growth but warning youth unemployment risks and noting energy shock spillovers from the Middle East. UAE Travel Update: UAE travellers face longer waits for the new Schengen permit as ETIAS timelines slip, with no immediate change for trips. Banking Impact: New Zealand’s ASB reported profit pressure tied to the Middle East-driven oil price shock and higher costs, while still seeing deposit growth. Energy & Renewables: Oman’s 120 MW Jaalan Bani Bu Ali wind project reached financial close, supporting the clean power push. Local Food Security: The Philippines backs enoki mushroom expansion to cut import dependence, aiming for fresher, traceable supply. RMB Push: China designated Deutsche Bank as an offshore yuan clearing bank in Frankfurt, boosting cross-border RMB settlement access for Europe.

Red Sea Security: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis attacked a commercial vessel in Bab el-Mandeb, killing four crew members, including three Pakistanis and an Indonesian, renewing fears for shipping routes. Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran and Oman talks are in focus as both sides signal movement on reopening navigation, while the U.S.-Iran track remains tied to demands over compensation and conditions. Regional Defense Politics: A tripartite mutual defense pact signed in Makkah by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan is drawing sharp Iranian pushback, with Tehran warning it won’t deliver Gulf security. Markets & Energy: Oil prices hover near $90 as Hormuz jitters and Red Sea risks keep traders cautious; investors also weigh mixed Middle East signals ahead of key economic data. Lebanon Rights Move: Lebanon’s parliament approved abolition of the death penalty, commuting any sentences to life imprisonment. Business & Investment: UAE and Saudi Arabia led MENA outbound investment activity in H1 2026, while Pakistan’s goods transporters vowed to keep a strike after talks with the government failed. Tech & Telecom: Kearney’s telecom health index ranks the UAE and Qatar as the healthiest telco markets in the region, while Türkiye pushes big AI and data-center investment plans. Public Health Watch: Yemen’s measles situation is flagged as a regional risk as war disrupts vaccination and healthcare delivery.

Gaza Diplomacy Clash: Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu formally rejected Trump’s 15-point Gaza plan, saying Israeli forces won’t withdraw until Hamas is fully disarmed, deepening a rift with Washington. Hormuz Pressure & Oil Jitters: Trump said the US is “semi-negotiating” with Iran while keeping economic and military pressure, as Iran demands compensation and sanctions relief to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—fueling market nerves. Yemen–Saudi Escalation: A Saudi Aramco refinery blaze in Jizan followed a Houthi claim of a precision drone strike, underscoring how Yemen’s war is widening across key energy routes. Israel–West Bank Tensions: Israel declared Taybeh, a Palestinian Christian town, a no-entry zone for non-residents, citing settler violence concerns and triggering fresh international scrutiny. Clean Energy Deal: Sino-Egyptian clean energy cooperation is expanding under the Belt and Road, with Chinese firms dominating major solar and wind projects. Business & Growth Signals: Singapore upgraded 2026 growth to 4.5%–5.5% and boosted non-oil exports forecasts, citing an AI-driven demand surge that helps offset Middle East-linked supply disruptions. Regional Economy Watch: Pakistan kept petrol and diesel prices unchanged under its daily pricing mechanism, while Bahrain reported record Q2 profits and resilience in consumer electronics despite regional pressures. UAP Files: The Pentagon released a fifth batch of declassified UFO records, including reports and videos tied to sightings in the Middle East.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran signalled it may rely on economic pressure rather than new strikes, with Trump saying the US is only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran as talks over passage remain unsettled. Regional Security Architecture: Experts warned the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement could be seen in Tehran as a “paper tiger,” even as it reflects a shift toward broader Gulf security coordination. Gaza Truce Politics: UAE and other Muslim-majority governments accused Israel of undermining a Gaza peace plan, while Israel rejected a Trump-backed Gaza proposal tied to Hamas disarmament. Shipping & Trade: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming more services through the Red Sea/Suez as firms gradually return to the corridor after Houthi attacks. Energy Crunch Watch: A diesel squeeze linked to Middle East and Ukraine disruptions is set to worsen into winter, raising fears of higher prices and tighter supplies. Business Leadership: Mastercard named Yasemin Bedir as President for EEMEA, effective Sept. 1, expanding leadership across 81 markets. Jordan Economy: Jerash Holdings reported record fiscal 2027 Q1 revenue and profit, citing improved margins amid logistics pressures. Afghanistan Frontlines: Taliban forces faced renewed anti-Taliban attacks in Badakhshan, with resistance groups exploiting local grievances.