AGP Executive Report

Middle East Security & Energy Shock: Oil surged past $100 a barrel as Iran and the US traded strikes and shipping attacks around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, while Saudi Arabia faced renewed pressure from Yemen’s Houthis—raising fresh inflation fears and pushing global bond yields higher. Global Markets: Stocks slid across Asia and Europe, with Australia’s ASX set for a rough open as investors priced in more rate hikes; gold held near $4,400 as traders awaited US inflation data. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan and other Muslim states welcomed the UK move to curb imports from Israeli settlements, urging wider action under international law. Aviation & Connectivity: EgyptAir plans a new direct Cairo–Singapore–Sydney route from early 2027, betting on growing travel demand. Humanitarian Tech in Gaza: Gaza Sky Geeks expanded co-working spaces to keep tech work going despite heavy telecom damage, using solar and generators to stay online. Business Spotlight: Majid Al Futtaim reported record H1 EBITDA growth, while Woodside moved to consolidate its Browse gas position amid the energy-driven market surge.

Oil Shock Across the Region: Brent surged past $100 a barrel as U.S. strikes hit Iranian tankers near Kharg Island and Houthi attacks sparked fires at Saudi oil facilities, reviving supply fears and pushing energy costs higher. West Asia Tensions, Global Markets: The oil jump dragged sentiment on Wall Street and lifted Treasury yields, while investors weighed how long the Middle East conflict can keep inflation pressure alive. Egypt Energy Deal: Energean said it has agreed principal terms with Egypt’s EGPC to merge three concessions into one, aiming to unlock a $150m investment push and expand production, pending ratification. UK–Israel Settlement Sanctions Row: Britain’s foreign secretary rejected claims that settlement trade bans endanger British Jews, while the U.S. signaled it was aware of the UK move but not backing sanctions. Aviation Disruption & Costs: UK air travel cancellations topped 2,000 as Nats faced a one-week investigation deadline after a major glitch; in Kenya, a new law reshapes how passenger service charges are collected and distributed, with industry warning of added strain. UAE Business & Finance: The UAE granted FP Markets a Category 5 CMA licence, and Sultan Al Neyadi joined a Paris space summit, underscoring Abu Dhabi’s growing regional footprint.

Middle East War Escalation: Houthis attacked four southern Saudi cities, wounding 73 and hitting oil and energy sites, while the US said it destroyed five Iranian crude tankers tied to the IRGC after attempted missile attacks on a US warship; Iran then struck a US base in Jordan, keeping the region on edge. Energy Shock & Markets: Oil pushed toward $100 a barrel as supply fears returned, with the Strait of Hormuz still moving far below pre-war flows; analysts warned the renewed flare-up could feed global inflation pressures. US Sanctions Push: Washington issued 36 Iran-related sanctions targeting Iran’s aviation sector and networks helping Tehran obtain US aircraft and tech, including designations across Turkey, UAE, Malaysia and Kazakhstan. Regional Diplomacy: Britain, France and Canada reaffirmed support for a two-state solution and moved to ban settlement goods, while Australia signaled it will pursue targeted measures rather than a blanket trade ban. Local Impact: Malaysia expanded fuel subsidies and cash handouts to cushion consumers and SMEs as diesel and petrol prices stayed capped under schemes like Budi Diesel and Budi95. Business & Tech: Citi consolidated global wealth data into a single Snowflake/AWS repository, cutting report timelines from weeks to days; Sohar International plans a Hong Kong representative office as a regional finance hub bet.

Oil & Shipping Risk: Goldman Sachs warns Persian Gulf and Red Sea attacks could push Brent above $120, adding to already strained fuel bills as Hormuz disruption and Houthi strikes tighten supply. Regional Security: US President Trump says the new campaign against Iran won’t last “too long,” while Israel signals it will respond without restrictions if Iran attacks. Yemen Conflict: Houthis hit Saudi oil facilities again, underscoring how the Yemen war keeps spilling into regional energy and shipping lanes. West Bank Sanctions: The UK moves to ban settlement goods and target services tied to settlement expansion, with other European countries expected to follow. Syria Tech Access: Microsoft Store access appears to be returning in Syria for some users, marking a shift after years of restrictions. Cashless Payments: Armenia’s deputy PM meets Visa officials, focusing on reducing fees for POS-based cashless payments. Energy Costs in Europe: Ireland’s Taoiseach warns diesel above €2 per litre may become the “new norm” due to Middle East volatility. Governance & Accountability: A report claims Netanyahu received a Hamas attack warning before Oct. 7 but didn’t act. Business & Jobs: JLR announces 4,000 job cuts over two years, raising supplier and workforce concerns.

Middle East Energy & Shipping: US Central Command struck three Iranian tankers as Iran warned of a new “restricted zone,” while Strait of Hormuz traffic hit its lowest level since May, keeping crude prices supported and raising fresh supply fears. UK-Israel Policy: The UK is set to move toward sanctions on Israeli West Bank settlements, including an embargo on goods and some services, drawing pushback from Washington and Israeli officials. Iran-US Tensions: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accused Israel of sabotaging regional peace efforts and derailing the Iran-US Islamabad memorandum, blaming “schemes and provocations” for the wider conflict fallout. Regional Diplomacy: China and Qatar pledged closer ties, with deeper cooperation flagged across energy, infrastructure and AI. Health Impact: A Lancet study says 2.7 billion people worldwide, including 767 million children, were exposed to second-hand smoke in 2023, contributing to nearly 1.7 million deaths. Renewables in MENA: BloombergNEF reports MENA added a record 16 GW of solar and wind in 2025, with 2026 additions projected to jump 37%. Business & Trade: MIHAS Knowledge Hub expands into a year-round platform to help halal exporters with continuous market intelligence and events. F1 Safety: FIA chief Mohammed Ben Sulayem said the Qatar and Abu Dhabi finale plans remain, but no one will be put at risk amid Middle East security uncertainty.

Sanctions & Israel-West Bank: Britain moved to impose sanctions tied to illegal Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank, a step already reverberating through Europe and raising questions about how far the UK can sway EU policy. West Bank Humanitarian Crisis: Hunger is surging in the West Bank as families lose land and livelihoods, with movement restrictions and demolitions deepening daily hardship. UNRWA Funding Shock: Finland joined the growing list of European donors cutting UNRWA support, citing alleged Hamas ties and leaving the agency’s next funding path uncertain. Iran Economy Under Pressure: Iran’s rial plunged to a new record low as US sanctions bite harder, with ordinary Iranians blaming the regime for worsening prices and shrinking purchasing power. Hormuz Oil Risk: US estimates suggest more Gulf oil is now escaping via Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, but the risk premium remains as shipping visibility and enforcement shift. Labour Day Fuel Spike: US motorists faced record Labour Day gasoline prices, with Hormuz disruption linked to the jump. Iraq-US Tensions: Iraq may face new US sanctions if disarmament of Iran-backed factions stalls as the coalition exit deadline nears. UAE Market & Business: Abu Dhabi and Dubai stocks largely held gains as oil-linked names firmed, while Dubai welcomed new auto launches like Li Auto’s UAE-ready Li L9. Sportswear Backlash: Adidas apologized after a campaign featuring a disabled former IDF soldier sparked boycott calls. Jordan Climate Finance: King Abdullah II ordered a unified national strategy for climate finance, aiming to better mobilize public and private funding. Nigeria Energy IPO: Dangote says its refinery IPO targets 10 million shareholders across Africa, focusing on broad ownership.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: The U.S. says it struck three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. warships, while Iran claims it hit a U.S. unmanned vessel—both sides trading accusations as Tehran warns of an “exclusion zone” and S. Korea weighs possible deployment. Gaza and Lebanon Strikes: Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed two Palestinians, including a child, and in southern Lebanon seven people were killed as Israel ordered evacuations ahead of strikes on Hezbollah-linked sites. Energy Shock and Costs: Oil prices jumped on renewed U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat, raising fears of prolonged Hormuz disruption; in the U.S., Labor Day gasoline is projected to hit record highs above $4 a gallon, feeding broader cost-of-living pressure. Bahrain Anti-Trafficking Push: Bahrain will host a regional forum in Manama to strengthen efforts against human trafficking, under the Labour Market Regulatory Authority. Market Mood in the Region: Renewed Middle East tensions are also rippling into equities and financing expectations, with investors watching oil, bonds, and rate moves.

Iran–US Tensions Escalate: The US hit three Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after IRGC ballistic missile attacks on US Navy ships, with Tehran warning of “faster, heavier and more painful” retaliation. Lebanon Security: Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun urged Washington to stop Israeli strikes after deaths in renewed attacks, as Israel said it targeted Hezbollah sites following a drone incident. West Bank Violence: US envoy Mike Huckabee called violent Israeli settlers “terrorists,” while Palestinian authorities condemned repeated attacks on Christian sites in occupied East Jerusalem. Yemen Front: Fresh clashes between Yemen’s government forces and Houthis killed more than 140 combatants, with fighting focused on the Red Sea gateway near Mokha and Bab al-Mandab. Markets & Energy Pressure: Oil and fuel prices stayed in focus as investors tracked the Strait of Hormuz shutdown risk and the broader Middle East conflict’s impact on inflation and supply routes. Qatar Digital Divide: A Qatar study found smartphones and WhatsApp apps are reshaping how older Arabs connect, but ageism still blocks many from fully using ICT. Global Trade Shift: Hong Kong emerged as a key route for Russian gold into China, underscoring how sanctions are rerouting MENA-linked trade flows.

Middle East War & Shipping: The US says it destroyed three Iranian oil tankers after IRGC ballistic-missile attacks on US Navy ships, warning Tehran it will “impose an even higher economic cost” and sink more vessels if it targets Americans. Regional Energy Pressure: With Hormuz still a flashpoint, analysts note exporters are rerouting flows and importers are diversifying suppliers, pushing up oil and fuel prices across the region. Israel-Gaza Diplomacy Tensions: Netanyahu publicly boasted about bombing Qatar and dismissed claims Gaza-bound funds were misused, renewing scrutiny of Doha’s mediator role. Lebanon Front: Israel widened strikes after announcing control of the strategic Ali Al Taher ridge, underscoring how quickly the Lebanon front is shifting. Yemen Conflict: Fresh clashes between Yemen’s Saudi-backed government and Houthi rebels killed more than 60, as fighting centers on access to the Red Sea gateway near Bab al-Mandab. Business & Investment: Jassper Shipping pledged up to $50m to expand cargo services across India and the Gulf; Hilton signed its first Zimbabwe deal; and Saudi PayTabs agreed to buy Amazon Payments MENA for $100m+.

Lebanon Escalation: Israel carried out overnight strikes across southern Lebanon and the western Bekaa, hours after claiming it cleared Hezbollah fighters from the Ali Al Taher ridge, killing at least five and wounding 24, with reports of home demolitions near Bint Jbeil. US-Iran Maritime Clash: The US said it struck three Iranian oil tankers, including near Kharg Island, after Iran’s IRGC launched ballistic missiles at two US Navy warships—raising fears of wider disruption to oil exports. Post-Iran War US Plan: Axios reports Trump officials are drafting a post-war Middle East strategy focused on containing Iran, managing Gaza’s aftermath, and expanding normalization—potentially including Saudi-Israel ties. Gulf Pressure on Oman: Trump warned Oman over any interference with US Iran talks, putting the Gulf mediator under new strain as Muscat seeks a role in Strait of Hormuz arrangements. UK Settlement Trade Fight: A UK legal group threatened HMRC with litigation over alleged tariff-free imports of goods from Israeli settlements. Kurdish Peace Process: Kurdish leaders reiterated a shift from armed struggle toward democratic politics, calling for unity and a roadmap for the peace and democratic society process. Energy & Markets: Oil prices rose on renewed US-Iran tensions, while Middle East conflict continues to feed inflation and borrowing-cost pressure.

US-Iran Escalation: Trump again warned the US could “hit” Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain “very soon,” after renewed strikes, as officials also worry about Iran-linked cyberattacks on US infrastructure. US Arms to Gulf: The State Department cleared about $6.1bn in weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iraq, including JDAM kits and tank engines, while also greenlighting a separate Saudi glide-bomb package. Hormuz and Shipping: Bangladesh urged de-escalation and said keeping the Strait of Hormuz open involves multiple actors, not one party, as cargo risks rise. Red Sea Violence: AFP reports Yemen’s Houthis launched a major offensive near Bab al-Mandab, killing 120+ and threatening key shipping routes. Energy Shock: Oil slid but stayed on track for a weekly gain as Middle East tensions lifted prices; diesel hit record highs, feeding inflation pressure across Europe and beyond. Lebanon Strikes: Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed at least three despite a truce, with fighting tied to Hezbollah positions. Press Freedom: A federal judge allowed the Pentagon to proceed with firing three Stars and Stripes journalists. Business & Tech (Gulf): Chinese robots drew crowds at Saudi’s LEAP 2026, while QR Ph in the Philippines expanded via Alipay+.

Middle East Conflict & Energy: Oil surged as US-Iran clashes reignited fears around the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent and WTI on track for their strongest weekly gains since late July; the renewed fighting also pushed US diesel to a record $5.85 a gallon, threatening higher grocery and transport costs. Gaza Climate Fallout: The Palestinian Authority says Israel’s bombardment has set back Gaza’s climate adaptation, leaving about two million people more exposed to heatwaves, drought and disease after key housing, water, sanitation and health systems were damaged. Security & Military Tech: The US disabled advertising tracking on troops’ devices after reports of location data being used to target personnel in the Middle East. Regional Flashpoints: Yemen saw fresh clashes between Houthis and government forces, and a Strait of Hormuz attack killed two Filipino seafarers on a Saudi-flagged tanker. Church in the Arab World: Pope Leo XIV urged Latin-rite bishops across the region not to fear their “smallness,” stressing service and Gospel fidelity amid conflict and migration. Business Watch: Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is considering cutting government bond exposure, while Africa’s solar boom and Dangote’s refinery IPO timeline keep investors focused on energy shifts.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: South Korea reportedly prepared for a possible Hormuz deployment, including a naval support ship and about 150 troops, but Seoul’s Blue House said no decision has been made. Iran–U.S. Escalation: Iran fired missiles and drones at U.S. forces in Kuwait and struck targets in the UAE, as Washington probes a reported wedding attack and Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. has “tools” ranging from economic to covert pressure. China–Egypt Security Push: Xi Jinping’s Egypt visit focused on a new Middle East security architecture and deeper security cooperation, with analysts warning it aims to reduce U.S. influence. Regional Energy Shock: Markets stayed jittery as Middle East conflict lifted oil prices and fed into inflation and bond-yield concerns, while South Africa’s central bank urged cautious rate moves amid a “polyshock” from oil and drought risks. Local Business & Policy: Dubai’s new shared housing law tightens permits and safety rules for subletting; Kenya ordered Tata Chemicals to shift from exporting raw soda ash toward local processing. Jobs & Training: Hyundai and KOICA launched a Ghana auto-repair training push with 5 billion won in joint investment through 2030. Sports & Culture: Qatar Polo Club’s Polo AlMarsa won multiple awards, including four gold titles.

US-Iran Tensions: Trump is reportedly weighing a formal declaration that the Iran war is over, even as the Pentagon keeps about 50,000 troops and 19 warships deployed across the Middle East and new sanctions target Iran’s economy. Shipping & Energy Pressure: Iran’s retaliatory strikes and US moves around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil and gas markets jumpy, with European gas prices hitting crisis-era levels near €75/MWh. Gulf Security Focus: The UAE and other Gulf states are bracing for disruption risk around Hormuz, while South Korea denies reports it’s considering troop deployment to the strait. Regional Diplomacy: Lebanon and the EU launched a Joint Monitoring Committee to strengthen cooperation on services and vulnerable communities. Business & Tech in MENA: IFS is pushing industrial AI adoption in Saudi Arabia at LEAP, while Dubai’s business calendar keeps expanding with major events like E&L MENA 2027. Local Impact: Cyprus tourism is showing resilience despite Middle East disruption, and South Africa says the conflict has driven billions in extra fuel import costs.

Middle East War Escalation: The US and Iran traded the heaviest blows since July, with Washington striking targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran hitting US positions across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, the UAE and Iraq—raising fears of a wider return to hostilities. Oil & Markets: The renewed fighting pushed oil prices higher and rattled global bond markets, keeping investors focused on inflation and possible Fed rate pressure. Hormuz Tensions & Shipping: Trump said the US is prepared to strike Iran “any time we want” and claimed Hormuz control, while Iran warned of “heavier” responses. Local Economic Fallout (Philippines): The Middle East shock fed into a stronger dollar and higher rates, driving the Philippine peso to a record low near 62.6 per dollar and worsening inflation worries. Regional Business & Culture: Egypt–China ties got a spotlight as Xi visited Cairo, while an Egyptian electronic duo Husa & Zeyada brought their Soundscool brand to Montreal and Toronto. Public Health: Hawaiʻi reported dengue virus detected in wastewater, with the wider risk linked to travel and mosquito-borne spread across parts of the Middle East.

China-Egypt Pivot: Xi Jinping’s first Egypt visit in a decade signals Beijing’s push for a new Middle East security framework, deeper security ties, and deals in AI, transport and manufacturing. Iran-Iraq Crossfire: Iran’s attacks on Iraq’s Kurdistan aim to push fighting outward and target less-protected areas, with reports of drone and missile strikes tied to renewed US-Iran escalation. Regional War Economy: Fresh US-Iran exchanges are keeping oil and inflation pressure high, with global bond yields rising and markets rattled. US Navy Returns to Port: The USS Abraham Lincoln docked in Thailand after a long Middle East deployment, as concerns grow over crew conditions and mental health. Aviation Squeeze on Iran: Iran’s foreign air links are shrinking as airlines avoid Tehran’s airspace amid renewed hostilities and sanctions. Energy Transit Shift: Syria is pitching itself as an overland alternative to Hormuz for oil and goods via the Baniyas corridor. Business & Trade: Pakistan says it will keep diplomacy despite Middle East tensions; India’s wheat harvest and export rule liberalisation could open $1.5bn in opportunities, including for Egypt and parts of the Middle East.